2018 United States Senate election in Florida

2018 United States Senate election in Florida

← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout52.0% Decrease
 
Nominee Rick Scott Bill Nelson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,099,505 4,089,472
Percentage 50.05% 49.93%

Scott:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Nelson:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%
     No data

U.S. Senator before election

Bill Nelson
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Rick Scott
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson ran for re-election to a fourth term, but was narrowly defeated by Republican Governor Rick Scott. The election was the closest Senate race in the state's history.

The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. The results showed that Nelson was narrowly trailing Scott, but the margin remained below 0.5%, triggering an automatic recount under Florida law. A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities. Following the recount, Florida elections officials confirmed Scott's victory on November 18, 2018. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast, or 0.12%. Both in terms of raw vote margin and by percentage of difference, this was the closest Senate election in the 2018 cycle. Scott's victory marked the first time since the Reconstruction era in 1875 that Republicans have held both Senate seats in Florida.

Background

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson sought re-election in the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Florida. The election was expected to be a key race in determining which party would control the U.S. Senate in 2019.

As of the second quarter of 2018, Nelson had a 44%-34% approval rating among his constituents. Despite having won re-election in 2012 by a 13% margin, Nelson was considered potentially vulnerable; he had been the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida since 2011, and his previous opponents, Connie Mack IV and Katherine Harris, were seen as much weaker challengers than Scott. Additionally, he was one of 10 incumbent Democratic senators running in states that had been carried by Donald Trump in 2016. Nelson was described as a "low-key centrist" that might not be able to energize progressive voters.

After being encouraged by President Trump to enter the Senate race, Republican governor of Florida Rick Scott announced his candidacy on April 9, 2018. As of the first quarter of 2018, Scott held a 54%-35% approval rating among his constituents, with a majority of Florida voters believing the state was moving in the right direction under Scott's administration. Republican President Donald Trump also held a positive approval rating of 49%-47% in Florida as of August 2018. Trump had won the state in 2016 by 1.2% over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Scott had put more than $86 million of his own money into his successful 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial bids.

Republican primary

The Republican primary was considered merely a formality, as Governor Scott's lone challenger was a perennial candidate who was running for Senate seats in eight other Republican primaries across the country. No other notable Republicans entered the race before or after Scott announced his candidacy.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rocky
De La Fuente
Rick
Scott
Undecided
Gravis Marketing August 21–25, 2018 579 ± 4.1% 12% 73% 15%
Gravis Marketing August 21–22, 2018 321 ± 5.5% 12% 73% 15%
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 905 ± 3.3% 16% 74% 10%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Augustus Sol
Invictus
David
Jolly
Carlos
López-Cantera
Tom
Rooney
Rick
Scott
Marcia R.
Thorne
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University November 19–24, 2017 166 1% 8% 54% 1% 4% 33%
Saint Leo University November 27–30, 2016 138 3% 6% 3% 3% 41% 11% 33%

Results

County results
 Scott
  •  70–80%
  •  80–90%
  •  90–100%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Scott 1,456,187 88.61%
Republican Rocky De La Fuente 187,209 11.39%
Total votes 1,643,396 100.00%

Democratic primary

As both of Senator Nelson's primary opponents failed to qualify for the ballot, no Democratic primary was held.

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Failed to qualify

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Withdrew

  • Joe Wendt, janitor

Declined

American Independent Party

Candidates

Withdrew

  • Ed Shoemaker, psychologist (ran for FL-15)

Independents and write-ins

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

General election

According to The Cook Political Report, the race was one of the 10 most competitive U.S. Senate races in the nation. It was also described as the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country.

Scott's involvement in a large Medicare fraud case stirred controversy during the general election campaign. Scott responded with ads accusing Nelson of having cut Medicare benefits and stolen from Medicare; fact-checkers found that both of Scott's assertions were "mostly false." During the campaign, Scott characterize[s] Nelson as a "socialist"; PolitiFact described the assertion as "pants-on-fire" false.

Gun control was a key issue in this race. The election came less than nine months after the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, the deadliest school shooting in American history. Nelson also mentioned the Orlando nightclub shooting that occurred in June 2016 and killed 49 people, asserting that —"nothing was done" by Scott's administration. In the wake of Stoneman Douglas, Scott raised the age to purchase a gun from 18 to 21, set a three-day waiting period to purchase assault-style weapons, and banned bump stocks--moves that Nelson described as "doing the bare...minimum". The National Rifle Association of America opposed Scott's legislation.

Environmental issues also took on a prominent role in the race. Scott and his administration had been heavily criticized for weakening regulations designed to protect the environment, even going as far as to instruct the FDEP not to use the words "climate change" or "global warming" in official reports. Because of this, Scott was blamed for the state's worsening algae blooms, even being dubbed "Red Tide Rick" on social media. Scott blamed the toxic blooms on Nelson and on Congress' general inefficiency.

During the campaign, Scott sought to avoid mentioning President Trump and at times criticized or distanced himself from actions of the Trump administration. Prior to the campaign, he had used his friendship with Trump to boost his profile, had been an early and vocal supporter of Trump in 2016, and reportedly spoke to President Trump every one or two weeks. Trump endorsed Scott in his Senate bid.

Both Nelson's and Scott's responses to Hurricanes Irma and Michael (which made landfall in September 2017 and October 2018, respectively) were closely watched during the campaign season.

Scott made Nelson's age an issue in the campaign.

Debates

Endorsements

Rick Scott (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Statewide and territorial officials
State and territorial legislators
Sheriffs
Mayors
Municipal officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Bill Nelson (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Statewide and territorial officials
State legislators
Mayors
Other government officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D November 5, 2018
NYT Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News Tossup November 5, 2018
CNN Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight Lean D November 5, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Rick Scott (R) $68,801,011 $66,496,248 $2,304,762
Bill Nelson (D) Incumbent $28,294,713 $25,482,421 $3,806,614
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Rick
Scott (R)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 4–5, 2018 1,484 ± 2.5% 47% 49% 4%
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 48%
St. Pete Polls November 3–4, 2018 3,088 ± 1.8% 50% 46% 4%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 49%
Quinnipiac University October 29 – November 4, 2018 1,142 ± 3.5% 51% 44% 0% 5%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 784 ± 3.7% 50% 45% 3% 3%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 47% 46% 7%
Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC) November 1–2, 2018 1,236 50% 48%
St. Pete Polls November 1–2, 2018 2,733 ± 1.9% 48% 49% 3%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 48%
Marist College October 30 – November 2, 2018 595 LV ± 5.0% 50% 46% <1% 4%
917 RV ± 4.1% 50% 45% <1% 5%
Gravis Marketing October 29 – November 2, 2018 753 ± 3.6% 50% 47% 4%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 50%
St. Pete Polls October 30–31, 2018 2,470 ± 2.0% 49% 47% 3%
Targoz Market Research October 28–31, 2018 558 45% 49% 6%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 48%
MWR Research/Consumer Energy Alliance October 25–31, 2020 1,005 41% 43% 17%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29–30, 2018 2,543 ± 1.9% 49% 47% 4%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018 696 ± 3.7% 50% 50%
HarrisX Archived November 5, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 43% 44%
Cygnal (R) October 27–29, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 50% 48% 2%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 781 LV ± 4.3% 49% 47% 0% 2%
887 RV ± 4.0% 46% 46% 0% 5%
Suffolk University Archived October 30, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 25–28, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 43% 10%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 23–27, 2018 737 ± 4.0% 48% 44% 8%
University of North Florida Archived October 30, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 23–26, 2018 1,051 ± 3.0% 47% 46% <1% 7%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 991 ± 4.0% 46% 46% 1% 6%
Ipsos October 17–25, 2018 1,069 ± 3.4% 49% 44% 3% 4%
Gravis Marketing October 22–23, 2018 773 ± 3.5% 49% 45% 6%
Strategic Research Associates Archived October 25, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 16–23, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 46% 45% 9%
Saint Leo University October 16–22, 2018 698 ± 3.5% 47% 38% 6% 9%
St. Pete Polls October 20–21, 2018 1,575 ± 2.5% 48% 49% 3%
Florida Atlantic University October 18–21, 2018 704 ± 3.6% 41% 42% 4% 13%
SurveyUSA October 18–21, 2018 665 ± 5.0% 49% 41% 4% 6%
Quinnipiac University October 17–21, 2018 1,161 ± 3.5% 52% 46% 0% 2%
Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D) October 17–20, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% 9%
CNN/SSRS October 16–20, 2018 759 LV ± 4.2% 50% 45% 0% 3%
872 RV ± 3.9% 49% 45% 0% 4%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Scott) October 14–18, 2018 2,200 ± 2.1% 46% 51% 3%
St. Pete Polls October 15–16, 2018 1,974 ± 2.2% 47% 49% 4%
Florida Southern College October 1–5, 2018 476 ± 4.5% 44% 46% 6% 4%
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS September 19 – October 2, 2018 522 ± 6.0% 48% 45% 1% 6%
St. Pete Polls September 29–30, 2018 2,313 ± 2.0% 47% 47% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 28–30, 2018 779 ± 3.5% 48% 44% 9%
Strategic Research Associates Archived November 22, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 17–30, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 45% 44% 11%
Mason-Dixon September 24–27, 2018 815 ± 3.5% 47% 46% 7%
Quinnipiac University September 20–24, 2018 888 ± 4.0% 53% 46% 0% 1%
Cherry Communications September 19–24, 2018 622 ± 4.4% 48% 46%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018 600 LV ± 4.7% 48% 45% 1% 6%
829 RV ± 4.0% 48% 43% 1% 7%
University of North Florida Archived September 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 17–19, 2018 603 45% 45% 1% 9%
Florida Atlantic University September 13–16, 2018 850 ± 3.3% 41% 42% 5% 11%
Ipsos September 5–12, 2018 1,000 ± 4.0% 45% 46% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 10–11, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 45% 44% 5% 6%
SurveyUSA September 7–9, 2018 634 ± 5.3% 44% 46% 4% 7%
Quinnipiac University August 30 – September 3, 2018 785 ± 4.3% 49% 49% 0% 2%
Gravis Marketing August 29–30, 2018 1,225 ± 2.8% 47% 47% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.) August 29–30, 2018 743 ± 4.0% 46% 45% 8%
St. Pete Polls August 29–30, 2018 1,755 ± 2.3% 47% 47% 5%
Florida Atlantic University August 16–20, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 39% 45% 17%
Saint Leo University August 10–16, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 36% 40% 8% 15%
Mason-Dixon July 24–25, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 9%
Florida Atlantic University July 20–21, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 40% 44% 17%
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,840 ± 2.3% 47% 43% 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,080 ± 5.0% 46% 49% 5%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 839 LV 41% 46% 6% 6%
996 RV ± 3.5% 40% 42% 6% 9%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 947 ± 3.9% 49% 45% 1% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.) June 18–19, 2018 1,308 ± 3.2% 48% 46% 7%
Gravis Marketing Archived June 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine May 31 – June 15, 2018 1,251 ± 2.8% 50% 40% 10%
Cherry Communications May 25 – June 4, 2018 605 ± 4.0% 45% 48% 5%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 506 ± 4.5% 34% 40% 8% 18%
Morning Consult May 29–30, 2018 1,199 ± 3.0% 39% 40%
Florida Atlantic University May 4–7, 2018 728 LV 45% 45%
1,000 RV ± 3.0% 40% 44% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D-Levine) April 10–11, 2018 661 ± 3.9% 50% 44% 6%
Gravis Marketing February 26 – March 19, 2018 2,212 ± 2.1% 44% 40% 16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-NR PAC) Archived April 13, 2018, at the Wayback Machine March 10–13, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 46% 47% 6%
Clearview Research March 1–7, 2018 750 ± 3.6% 41% 43% 16%
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,806 ± 5.0% 53% 43% 4%
Quinnipiac University February 23–26, 2018 1,156 ± 3.6% 46% 42% 2% 9%
Florida Atlantic University February 23–25, 2018 800 ± 3.6% 40% 38% 22%
Saint Leo University February 18–24, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 35% 42% 9% 15%
Gravis Marketing Archived November 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine February 1–18, 2018 1,978 ± 2.2% 44% 40% 16%
Florida Atlantic University February 1–4, 2018 750 ± 3.7% 34% 44% 22%
University of North Florida Archived April 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine January 29 – February 4, 2018 429 ± 4.7% 48% 42% 2% 7%
Mason-Dixon January 30 – February 1, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%
Dixie Strategies January 9–10, 2018 785 ± 3.5% 38% 35% 27%
Gravis Marketing Archived December 28, 2017, at the Wayback Machine December 19–24, 2017 5,778 ± 1.3% 44% 39% 17%
Saint Leo University November 19–24, 2017 500 ± 4.5% 32% 42% 8% 18%
Mason-Dixon October 17–19, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 44% 44% 12%
University of North Florida Archived March 7, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 11–17, 2017 706 ± 3.4% 37% 36% 7% 20%
Cherry Communications September 17–24, 2017 615 ± 4.0% 45% 47% 8%
Saint Leo University September 10–16, 2017 500 ± 4.5% 33% 35% 11% 21%
Florida Atlantic University August 24–26, 2017 800 ± 4.0% 42% 40% 18%
Gravis Marketing Archived April 14, 2017, at the Wayback Machine April 4–10, 2017 1,243 ± 2.8% 56% 28% 16%
Gravis Marketing Archived April 4, 2017, at the Wayback Machine March 28–29, 2017 1,453 ± 2.6% 52% 37% 12%
Cherry Communications March 6–14, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 48% 42% 10%
Saint Leo University March 3–11, 2017 507 ± 4.5% 39% 34% 10% 17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-FHA) March 1–5, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 46% 44% 10%
Mason-Dixon February 24–28, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 46% 41% 13%
University of North Florida February 13–26, 2017 957 ± 3.1% 44% 38% 3% 12%
Gravis Marketing November 22–25, 2016 3,250 ± 2.4% 51% 38% 11%
Public Policy Polling September 4–6, 2016 744 ± 3.6% 45% 41% 14%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 46% 42% 12%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 47% 43% 10%
Hypothetical polling
with Pam Bondi
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Pam
Bondi (R)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing November 22–25, 2016 3,250 ± 2.4% 50% 35% 15%

Initial results and recount

The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. Because Scott's lead over Nelson was less than 0.5% of the vote, an automatic recount was triggered under Florida law. A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities.

Nelson and Scott traded accusations of voter suppression and voter fraud. Two lawsuits were filed by the Scott campaign after the election against the Supervisor of Elections in both Palm Beach and Broward Counties while the Nelson campaign filed one against the secretary of state in Florida. On November 9, the Scott campaign won both of their lawsuits. Notably, election officials in Broward County had to receive police protection after accusations of voter fraud were made by a few members of Congress.

Additionally, a number of mail-in ballots were found in a mail distribution center in the city of Opa-locka three days after the election. The Miami-Dade Elections Department considered the votes uncountable because they had not arrived at the department by the time the polls closed.

The deadline for all ballots to be machine-counted was 3:00 pm EST on Thursday, November 15, 2018. The revised totals triggered a statewide hand-recount of rejected ballots. At least three counties (Broward, Hillsborough, and Palm Beach County) missed the deadline. During machine counting, 846 votes from Hillsborough County were lost, presumably due to a power outage. Machines purchased from Sequoia Voting Systems broke down, creating delays in the count of Palm Beach County votes.

Results

Florida elections officials announced on November 18, 2018 that Scott had prevailed. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast. Nelson then conceded the race to Scott.

United States Senate election in Florida, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rick Scott 4,099,505 50.05% +7.82%
Democratic Bill Nelson (incumbent) 4,089,472 49.93% -5.30%
Write-in 1,028 0.01% N/A
Total votes 8,190,005 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

By county

Final results from Florida Division of Elections.

County Rick Scott (Republican) Bill Nelson (Democratic) Other (Write-in) Total
Votes % Votes % Votes %
Alachua           40,599 35.27%               74,493 64.71% 20 0.02%      115,112
Baker             8,579 81.51%                 1,945 18.48% 1 0.01%         10,525
Bay           46,681 73.62%               16,723 26.37% 7 0.01%         63,411
Bradford             7,576 72.46%                 2,879 27.53% 1 0.01%         10,456
Brevard         160,305 56.95%             121,112 43.03% 56 0.02%      281,473
Broward         211,397 30.92%             472,239 69.08% 0 0.00%      683,636
Calhoun             3,586 77.64%                 1,033 22.36% 0 0.00%           4,619
Charlotte           52,916 61.20%               33,525 38.78% 16 0.02%         86,457
Citrus           48,008 67.92%               22,660 32.06% 15 0.02%         70,683
Clay           65,639 70.30%               27,718 29.69% 11 0.01%         93,368
Collier         101,266 65.06%               54,390 34.94% 6 0.00%      155,662
Columbia           17,234 69.65%                 7,505 30.33% 6 0.02%         24,745
Desoto             5,503 62.31%                 3,328 37.69% 0 0.00%           8,831
Dixie             4,442 77.06%                 1,322 22.94% 0 0.00%           5,764
Duval         185,904 49.14%             192,381 50.85% 45 0.01%      378,330
Escambia           75,947 58.94%               52,891 41.05% 17 0.01%      128,855
Flagler           31,467 59.49%               21,419 40.49% 11 0.02%         52,897
Franklin             3,404 62.86%                 2,011 37.14% 0 0.00%           5,415
Gadsden             6,051 30.26%               13,945 69.74% 1 0.01%         19,997
Gilchrist             5,703 77.74%                 1,633 22.26% 0 0.00%           7,336
Glades             2,666 69.74%                 1,156 30.24% 1 0.03%           3,823
Gulf             4,321 73.22%                 1,580 26.78% 0 0.00%           5,901
Hamilton             2,856 63.09%                 1,671 36.91% 0 0.00%           4,527
Hardee             4,455 69.93%                 1,916 30.07% 0 0.00%           6,371
Hendry             5,304 59.96%                 3,542 40.04% 0 0.00%           8,846
Hernando           49,501 61.64%               30,798 38.35% 14 0.02%         80,313
Highlands           26,282 66.22%               13,398 33.76% 6 0.02%         39,686
Hillsborough         239,641 45.96%             281,661 54.02% 72 0.01%      521,374
Holmes             5,919 87.37%                     856 12.63% 0 0.00%           6,775
Indian River           44,798 60.53%               29,195 39.45% 11 0.01%         74,004
Jackson           10,791 67.55%                 5,182 32.44% 1 0.01%         15,974
Jefferson             3,699 50.48%                 3,626 49.49% 2 0.03%           7,327
Lafayette             2,195 77.89%                     623 22.11% 0 0.00%           2,818
Lake           93,537 60.36%               61,402 39.63% 15 0.01%      154,954
Lee         174,316 60.27%             114,857 39.71% 41 0.01%      289,214
Leon           48,767 34.86%               91,097 65.12% 34 0.02%      139,898
Levy           11,658 68.66%                 5,319 31.33% 3 0.02%         16,980
Liberty             2,076 76.66%                     632 23.34% 0 0.00%           2,708
Madison             4,184 54.99%                 3,425 45.01% 0 0.00%           7,609
Manatee           94,390 57.80%               68,877 42.18% 28 0.02%      163,295
Marion           95,592 61.81%               59,025 38.16% 44 0.03%      154,661
Martin           46,733 60.35%               30,691 39.63% 12 0.02%         77,436
Miami-Dade         316,020 39.43%             485,496 60.57% 31 0.00%      801,547
Monroe           18,035 49.97%               18,051 50.02% 4 0.01%         36,090
Nassau           31,795 73.09%               11,703 26.90% 3 0.01%         43,501
Okaloosa           60,924 72.66%               22,902 27.31% 19 0.02%         83,845
Okeechobee             7,727 68.84%                 3,496 31.15% 1 0.01%         11,224
Orange         180,763 38.04%             294,308 61.94% 70 0.01%      475,141
Osceola           47,898 41.64%               67,123 58.35% 8 0.01%      115,029
Palm Beach         244,850 41.58%             344,008 58.42% 36 0.01%      588,894
Pasco         121,212 57.53%               89,447 42.45% 51 0.02%      210,710
Pinellas         205,935 47.37%             228,712 52.60% 127 0.03%      434,774
Polk         138,751 56.74%             105,748 43.24% 45 0.02%      244,544
Putnam           18,689 66.66%                 9,344 33.33% 5 0.02%         28,038
Santa Rosa           56,374 74.74%               19,047 25.25% 10 0.01%         75,431
Sarasota         113,585 53.94%               96,973 46.05% 35 0.02%      210,593
Seminole           97,457 48.98%             101,504 51.01% 31 0.02%      198,992
St. Johns           85,031 65.07%               45,638 34.92% 12 0.01%      130,681
St. Lucie           59,612 48.22%               63,978 51.75% 34 0.03%      123,624
Sumter           52,868 70.92%               21,678 29.08% 3 0.00%         74,549
Suwannee           11,842 74.53%                 4,044 25.45% 2 0.01%         15,888
Taylor             5,638 71.36%                 2,263 28.64% 0 0.00%           7,901
Union             3,650 75.30%                 1,197 24.70% 0 0.00%           4,847
Volusia         125,762 55.02%             102,819 44.98% 0 0.00%      228,581
Wakulla             9,322 65.69%                 4,868 34.31% 0 0.00%         14,190
Walton           22,776 75.26%                 7,485 24.73% 4 0.01%         30,265
Washington             7,101 78.38%                 1,959 21.62% 0 0.00%           9,060
Total     4,099,505 50.05%         4,089,472 49.93%        1,028 0.01%   8,190,005
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Analysis

Edison Research exit poll

Demographic subgroup Nelson Scott No
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men 42 58 N/A 45
Women 57 43 N/A 55
Age
18–24 years old 62 38 N/A 5
25–29 years old 73 27 N/A 5
30–39 years old 62 38 N/A 10
40–49 years old 49 51 N/A 12
50–64 years old 50 50 N/A 31
65 and older 43 57 N/A 37
Race
White 40 60 N/A 66
Black 90 10 N/A 13
Latino 54 46 N/A 15
Asian N/A N/A N/A 2
Other 67 33 N/A 4
Race by gender
White men 32 68 N/A 31
White women 47 53 N/A 35
Black men 88 12 N/A 6
Black women 91 9 N/A 8
Latino men 49 51 N/A 6
Latina women 58 42 N/A 9
Others 66 34 N/A 5
Education
High school or less 47 53 N/A 20
Some college education 51 49 N/A 25
Associate degree 47 53 N/A 15
Bachelor's degree 48 52 N/A 24
Advanced degree 58 42 N/A 16
Education and race
White college graduates 47 53 N/A 28
White no college degree 35 65 N/A 38
Non-white college graduates 64 36 N/A 12
Non-white no college degree 74 26 N/A 22
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 58 42 N/A 13
White women without college degrees 40 60 N/A 22
White men with college degrees 37 63 N/A 14
White men without college degrees 27 73 N/A 17
Non-whites 70 30 N/A 34
Income
Under $30,000 62 38 N/A 19
$30,000–49,999 53 47 N/A 22
$50,000–99,999 51 49 N/A 34
$100,000–199,999 48 52 N/A 19
Over $200,000 N/A N/A N/A 7
Party ID
Democrats 92 8 N/A 33
Republicans 9 91 N/A 37
Independents 55 45 N/A 30
Party by gender
Democratic men 90 10 N/A 12
Democratic women 93 7 N/A 21
Republican men 7 93 N/A 19
Republican women 11 89 N/A 18
Independent men 50 50 N/A 14
Independent women 60 40 N/A 16
Ideology
Liberals 89 11 N/A 22
Moderates 62 38 N/A 39
Conservatives 15 85 N/A 39
Marital status
Married 43 57 N/A 64
Unmarried 59 41 N/A 36
Gender by marital status
Married men 36 64 N/A 32
Married women 50 50 N/A 31
Unmarried men 48 52 N/A 14
Unmarried women 62 38 N/A 22
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 58 42 N/A 16
No 47 53 N/A 84
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 75 25 N/A 41
Immigration 17 83 N/A 29
Economy 28 72 N/A 16
Gun policy 76 24 N/A 11
Area type
Urban 56 44 N/A 42
Suburban 47 53 N/A 50
Rural 37 63 N/A 8
Source: CNN

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