2022 California gubernatorial election
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Turnout | 50.80% 12.48pp | ||||||||||||||||
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Newsom: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Dahle: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in California |
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The 2022 California gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of California, with the statewide top-two primary election taking place on June 7, 2022. Incumbent Democratic Party Governor Gavin Newsom was re-elected to a second term after surviving a recall election in 2021, during his first term.
The elections featured universal mail-in ballots; in-person voting was also available. All statewide elected offices are currently held by Democrats. Newsom won 61.9% of the vote in both the 2018 gubernatorial election and the 2021 recall election. He received 55.9% of the top-two primary vote and faced Republican Party state senator Brian Dahle, who received 17.7% of the primary vote, in the general election. Newsom received 59.2% of the vote to Dahle's 40.8%, a smaller margin of victory than in 2018 and the first time the Democratic candidate failed to win 60% of the vote since 2014. Dahle flipped five counties that Newsom carried in 2018, namely Lake, Merced (although Merced voted to recall Newsom), Orange, San Bernardino, and San Joaquin. Dahle received 32% of the vote in Los Angeles County, the highest percentage received by a Republican in the state's most populous county since 2014. Dahle also managed to carry two congressional districts represented by Democrats (CA-09 and CA-47). This election marks the fourth consecutive California gubernatorial election in which a Democratic candidate won.
Candidates
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
- Gavin Newsom, incumbent governor
Eliminated in primary
- Anthony Fanara, restaurant owner
- Armando Perez-Serrato, businessman and candidate in the 2021 recall election
- Joel Ventresca, former Service Employees International Union committee member, retired airport analyst and perennial candidate
Republican Party
Advanced to general
- Brian Dahle, state senator from the 1st district and former Minority Leader of the California State Assembly
Eliminated in primary
- Ronald A. Anderson, contractor and businessman
- Gurinder Bhangoo (write-in)
- Shawn Collins, U.S. Navy veteran and attorney
- Ron Jones, former police officer
- Jenny Rae Le Roux, entrepreneur and candidate in the 2021 recall election
- David Lozano, attorney and candidate in the 2021 recall election
- Daniel R. Mercuri, businessman, candidate in the 2021 recall election and for California's 25th congressional district in 2020
- Cristian Raul Morales, manufacturing executive
- Robert C. Newman, psychologist and candidate in the 2021 recall election
- Lonnie Sortor, business owner
- Anthony Trimino, entrepreneur and candidate in the 2021 recall election
- Major Williams, entrepreneur and write-in candidate in the 2021 recall election
- Leo S. Zacky, businessman, broadcaster, and candidate in the 2021 recall election
Declined
- Larry Elder, conservative talk show host, author, and candidate in the 2021 recall election
- Kevin Faulconer, former mayor of San Diego (2014–2020) and candidate in the 2021 recall election
- Kimberly Guilfoyle, television personality, former advisor to Donald Trump and ex-wife of Gavin Newsom
- Kevin Kiley, state assemblyman from the 6th district (2016–present) and candidate in the 2021 recall election (running for CA-03)
Green Party
Eliminated in primary
- Heather Collins, small business owner and candidate in the 2021 recall election
- Luis J. Rodriguez, poet, novelist, and candidate for governor in 2014
American Independent Party
Eliminated in primary
- Jeff Scott (write-in)
No party preference
Eliminated in primary
- Serge Fiankan, small business owner
- James G. Hanink, former Loyola Marymount University philosophy professor and candidate in the 2021 recall election
- Woodrow Sanders III, entrepreneur and engineer
- Frederic C. Schultz, attorney
- Reinette Senum, former mayor of Nevada City
- Michael Shellenberger, environmental policy writer and Democratic candidate for governor in 2018
- Bradley Zink, children's book author
Withdrew
- Adriel Hampton, digital media businessman and candidate for California's 10th congressional district in 2009
Endorsements
- Organizations
- Political Parties
- Individuals
- Brian T. Carroll, teacher, candidate for California's 22nd congressional district in 2018 and president in 2020
- Mike Maturen, candidate for president in 2016
- Newspapers and other media
- Organizations
- AFSCME California (American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees)
- California Democratic Party
- California Faculty Association
- California Federation of Teachers
- California Teachers Association
- Equality California
- NARAL Pro-Choice California
- March On
- National Education Association
- Stonewall Democrats
- Newspapers and other media
- People’s Tribune
- Tribuno del Pueblo
- Organizations
- Green Party of California
- Peace and Freedom Party
- Justice Party
- Labor Counsel for Latin American Advancement - Sacramento Chapter
- Association of Raza Educators
- Los Angeles Poet Society
- Organizations
- Individuals
- Steven Pinker, author and public intellectual
- Douglas Murray, author, journalist and public commentator
Primary election
The list of candidates was announced on Mar 31, 2022 by the Secretary of State.
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
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Berkeley IGS | May 24–31, 2022 | 3,438 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 16% |
SurveyUSA | May 13–15, 2022 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 40% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 18% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Gavin Newsom (incumbent) | 3,945,728 | 55.9 | |
Republican | Brian Dahle | 1,252,800 | 17.7 | |
No party preference | Michael Shellenberger | 290,286 | 4.1 | |
Republican | Jenny Rae Le Roux | 246,665 | 3.5 | |
Republican | Anthony Trimino | 246,322 | 3.5 | |
Republican | Shawn Collins | 173,083 | 2.5 | |
Green | Luis J. Rodriguez | 124,672 | 1.8 | |
Republican | Leo S. Zacky | 94,521 | 1.3 | |
Republican | Major Williams | 92,580 | 1.3 | |
Republican | Robert C. Newman II | 82,849 | 1.2 | |
Democratic | Joel Ventresca | 66,885 | 0.9 | |
Republican | David Lozano | 66,542 | 0.9 | |
Republican | Ronald A. Anderson | 53,554 | 0.8 | |
No party preference | Reinette Senum | 53,015 | 0.8 | |
Democratic | Armando Perez-Serrato | 45,474 | 0.6 | |
Republican | Ron Jones | 38,337 | 0.5 | |
Republican | Daniel R. Mercuri | 36,396 | 0.5 | |
Green | Heather Collins | 29,690 | 0.4 | |
Democratic | Anthony Fanara | 25,086 | 0.4 | |
Republican | Cristian Raul Morales | 22,304 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Lonnie Sortor | 21,044 | 0.3 | |
No party preference | Frederic C. Schultz | 17,502 | 0.2 | |
No party preference | Woodrow Sanders III | 16,204 | 0.2 | |
No party preference | James G. Hanink | 10,110 | 0.1 | |
No party preference | Serge Fiankan | 6,201 | 0.1 | |
No party preference | Bradley Zink | 5,997 | 0.1 | |
American Independent | Jeff Scott (write-in) | 13 | 0.0 | |
Republican | Gurinder Bhangoo (write-in) | 8 | 0.0 | |
Total votes | 7,063,868 | 100.0 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report | Solid D | October 26, 2022 |
Inside Elections | Solid D | November 3, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | November 7, 2022 |
Politico | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
RCP | Safe D | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
538 | Solid D | November 8, 2022 |
Elections Daily | Safe D | November 7, 2022 |
Debates
Governor Gavin Newsom and State Senator Brian Dahle met on October 23 for their only debate.
No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Participants | |
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P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
Gavin Newsom | Brian Dahle | |||||
1 | October 23, 2022 | KQED | Scott Shafer Marisa Lagos |
YouTube | P | P |
Polling
- Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Gavin Newsom (D) |
Brian Dahle (R) |
Other |
Margin |
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Real Clear Politics | September 22 – October 23, 2022 | November 3, 2022 | 55.0% | 34.3% | 10.7% | Newsom +20.7 |
FiveThirtyEight | September 2 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 59.6% | 38.7% | 1.7% | Newsom +20.9 |
270ToWin | October 27 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 57.4% | 37.0% | 5.6% | Newsom +20.4 |
Average | 57.3% | 36.7% | 6.0% | Newsom +20.6 |
- Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom (D) |
Brian Dahle (R) |
Other | Undecided |
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Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 56% | 37% | 7% | |
USC | October 30 – November 2, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 62% | 38% | – | – |
UC Berkeley | October 25–31, 2022 | 5,972 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 58% | 37% | – | 4% |
ActiVote | July 29 – October 27, 2022 | 200 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 61% | 39% | – | – |
Public Policy Institute of California | October 14–23, 2022 | 1,060 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 55% | 36% | 4% | 5% |
SurveyUSA | October 7–10, 2022 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 35% | – | 8% |
UC Berkeley | September 22–27, 2022 | 6,939 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 53% | 32% | 2% | 13% |
Public Policy Institute of California | September 2–11, 2022 | 1,060 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 58% | 31% | 5% | 7% |
UC Berkeley | August 9–15, 2022 | 9,254 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 25% | 4% | 19% |
6,321 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 55% | 31% | 3% | 11% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Kevin Faulconer
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom (D) |
Kevin Faulconer (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Berkeley IGS | August 30 – September 6, 2021 | 9,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 49% | 27% | 24% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. John Cox
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom (D) |
John Cox (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Berkeley IGS | August 30 – September 6, 2021 | 9,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 51% | 26% | 23% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Larry Elder
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom (D) |
Larry Elder (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Berkeley IGS | August 30 – September 6, 2021 | 9,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 52% | 30% | 18% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Kevin Kiley
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom (D) |
Kevin Kiley (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Berkeley IGS | August 30 – September 6, 2021 | 9,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 50% | 25% | 25% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
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Democratic | Gavin Newsom (incumbent) | 6,470,104 | 59.18% | −2.77 | |
Republican | Brian Dahle | 4,462,914 | 40.82% | +2.77 | |
Total votes | 10,933,018 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Turnout | 10,933,018 | 50.80% | −12.48 | ||
Registered electors | 21,940,274 | ||||
Democratic hold |
By county
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By congressional district
Newsom won 38 of 52 congressional districts, with the remaining 14 going to Dahle, including two that elected Democrats.